Long the EUR/USD again
My overriding thesis is that Obama is going to be spending and printing money faster than the EU. This should drive a fundamental rally in the Euro vs. the Dollar. This could change, of course…with Greece’s problem’s coming to light again in September, worries of a Greek Default will once again plague the Euro and may affect it in relation to USD.
But for now, I’m fundamentally long the Euro vs. the Dollar and using technicals to time what I think are relatively safe entries and exits. What I’m looking at right now appears pretty bullish to me for the next 24 hours of trading. I got into what I think is a pretty good position with a basis of 1.31537. We’ll see how it pans out. My target is at least 1.32 or 1.33…maybe as far as 1.36, depending on what the chart looks like in the next 24 hours.
Update: This turned out to be a nice trade! I was able to exit at 1.32279 for a 35.0% profit.
Update #2: After being out the market for much of the day, I came back to a decent looking chart for EUR/USD again, so I re-entered a position at 1.32300. It was a pretty sloppy entry, I could have done much better. 
Update #3: Got stopped out again. This has been quite a correction, but I’m confident in the dollar’s weakness long term, so I’ll be looking for a long re-entry.